At 5 pm EST, the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near 15.9 N, 70.8 W or 420 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica.
Movement is to the WNW (290 deg) at a quick 19 kts. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 943 mb with peak winds estimated at 135 kts gusting to 165 kts. This places Beryl right at the CAT 5 threshold.
Beryl is expected to hit Jamaica around midday Wednesday. The only possible saving grace is that Beryl will be entering a region of moderate to strong shear from now until its center is past Jamaica. There is already some evidence of weakening over the past several hours. The forecast models are consistent in weakerning the storm further over the next 24 hours but Beryl is likely to remain a major hurricane when it impacts Jamaica and likely will still a hurricane when it comes ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula near midnight Thursday night.
The longer term track is highly uncertain but the recent trend in model guidance is to curve Beryl more to the NW. While the current NHC track has Beryl coming ashore again just south of the Texas/Mexico border with a large cone of uncertainty, given the most recent guidance I suspect the NHC will either further broaden the envelope or adjust it further north. Locations in Texas from Port Lavaca to the border should keep a close watch on the forecasts for this weekend.
Bill Ryan
